OilScenarios.info

The Scenarios
Pollyanna
Optimistic
Plateau
Pessimistic
Head for the hills

Oil Basics
Introduction to oil
Oil News and Statistics
Oil Compainies
Non-conventional oil

Beyond Oil
by Deffeyes (2005)

Hubbert's Peak
by Deffeyes (2001)

Twilight in the Desert
By Matthew Simmons
(2005)


New Economy of Oil
by Mitchell, et al (2001)

Color of Oil
by Economides et al
(2000)

The 2030 Spike
by C. Mason (2003)

 

Expectations:

World oil production is very close to peaking. Following peak oil rapid reduction in oil production is expected that no economic forces or zeal for developing alternative energy sources will be able to compensate for. The resulting energy crunch will lead to the destabilization of world economic markets and greatly increase the likelihood of global armed conflict over the remaining oil and gas fields.

The figure below shows oil production dropping on the near future with alternative energy sources not picking up the slack. According to this view oil supply will fall before alternative sources can be developed to replace the loss of oil resulting in such a significant energy gap that social turmoil is inevitable. In this figure alternative sources are not seen as catching on even in the future because of the degradation in society making the need for large amounts of energy not even necessary. A slightly more positive outlook might have alternative sources allowing for new population growth and thus energy consumption growth as we head out toward 2050 and beyond.

Assumptions:

• No large oil fields are likely to be found in the future
• Although market forces will encourage increased spending, new oil put into production will not be able to compensate for the depletion of old oil fields
• New technology allows more rapid extraction of oil but will not substantially increase the total recoverable oil from a field
• Stated reserves, especially in the middle east are overestimates of actual recoverable oil
• Non-conventional oil and alternative energy sources will not be able to completely fill the gap left by oil depletion after peak oil has occurred
• A sociological assumption is that individuals and governments will act out of self-preservation in attempting secure energy sources for themselves.

Selected writings and web sites:
(please note that each link only represents aspects of this view. For example Campbell ("The end of cheap oil") paints a gloomy pictures of the future of oil but this doesn't necessitate that we all "head for the hills."

The DryDipstick: A web site for peak oil that contains a huge number of links to articles on peak oil and other oil data. Many of the articles listed would be placed in the pessimistic category rather than the more extreme category.

Wolf at the door: UK website whose subtitle is "A beginners guide to oil depletion" Some of the data is the same as presented here but all of it is presented within the context of a distinctly pessimistic outlook. A good place to look if you want to see how some people are preparing for the complete breakdown of society due to oil depletion.

The Busby Report: Another UK site containing an analysis of societal changes in the UK due to oil depletion.

Life after the Oil Crash. A very pessimistic site with an associated book dealing with how to cope with the impending oil crash.

The End of Cheap Oil: Article from Scientific American, March 1998 by Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère. This article is one of the most prominent mainstream writings that made a big impact in increasing awareness of the peak oil movement.

Books reflecting a doomsday viewpoint:

The Party's Over and PowerDown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World both by Richard Heinberg. Heinberg who is a faculty member of New College Of California (Santa Rosa) brings a distinctly pessimistic view to the eventual consequences of peak oil.

The Oil Factor by Leeb & Leeb (2004).

Oil, Jihad and Destiny : Will declining oil production plunge our planet into a depression? by Ronald R. Cooke

Related Books: (links to Amazon.com)

Collapse of Complex Societies (New Studies in Archaeology)
by Joseph Tainter, Colin Renfrew (Editor), Wendy Ashmore (Editor), Clive Gamble (Editor), John O'Shea (Editor)

The 2030 Spike by Colin Mason (2003)